Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by radoomi 736 days ago
It's intriguing how people's opinions about Elon Musk's predictions remain unchanged, even when they come true.

Take, for example, his 2016 prediction [1] that the Model Y would sell 500,000 to 1 million units annually, four years before its launch and even before the Model 3 was released. This would make it the world's best-selling vehicle, not just the top electric vehicle. How do people perceive such audacious forecasts? And how do they react when these predictions materialize?

Similarly, when Musk accepted a compensation package based on Tesla's value increasing tenfold within ten years, the company was still unprofitable and losing money. Remarkably, Tesla achieved this goal in half that. How do people view these ambitious commitments and their successful outcomes?

Recently, Musk claimed that Tesla's autonomous driving technology alone could elevate the company to a $5 trillion valuation, and with the addition of the Tesla Bot, this could rise to $30 trillion. What are people's thoughts on these projections?

And will they ever reconsider their skepticism?

Yes, some of his predictions are late (like FSD and the Roadster), but personally, I prefer someone who eventually delivers the seemingly impossible over someone who neither promises nor delivers.

[1] - https://electrek.co/2016/08/04/tesla-anticipates-demand-for-...

1 comments

30 Trillion dollars....