[jpgvm]

Or they skip EUV all together and go straight to xray.

IMO that is the real threat to both ASML and the current Western supply chain. By forcing China out you make it very likely they will choose to leap-frog instead of try play catch-up. They did it with EVs there is a very good chance they do it with semiconductors also.

[impossiblefork]

Surely it would damage the resist?

[jpgvm]

It would need entirely new resist, lenses, associated inspection, cleaning and repair equipment etc.

Which sounds like a terrible idea until you realize they would need all the same stuff for EUV except when they are done they would still be ~10-15 years behind.

Building an entirely new process based on xray would be challenging certainly but not that much more challenging from going from where they are to EUV.

[impossiblefork]

Alternatively, present wavelengths are what make sense, and attempts to go to shorter wavelength will only cause delay.

If one goes for particle accelerator based systems with wigglers, then of course none of this will matter, since the wavelength will be variable and one can use whatever wavelength is ideal, but the idea that going to shorter wavelengths is always better is something I think is crazy. There'll be some optimal wavelength.

[jpgvm]

I agree. Particle accelerator systems are exactly what I had in mind, synchrotron or free electron lasers to generate the xray beamlines necessary.