What's nuts to me is the time scale on the bottom. That is not a lot of time for something so complex.
Then again, if they do an Intel 10nm+++++ and fail to maintain velocity even for a couple of years, their competition will close that gap very quickly.
At the top nodes and volumes, indeed there is no competition. They have a huge headstart handed to them basically by Japan screwing it up in the 90s and no one else being able to step (get it?) up quickly before the gap opened.
However, if they can't keep moving, competition that was trailing behind on larger nodes could get close enough that they become competitors for the high end. At first it would be slightly bigger nodes, but cheaper, which might be an acceptable tradeoff, as not everyone in the world is chasing performace over price. CPUs are so gruesomely overpowered these days that it may not really matter that much in many end applications.
Think AMD coming up behind Intel while Intel was thrashing around.
How long the AI hype continues may be important: if AI capabilities are needed in end-user equipment and that requires the real cutting edge processes, ASML/TSMC keep the advantage.
ASML is going to remain a monopoly and whatever Chinese alternative that there may be is going to stay in China for the foreseeable future.
However because the Chinese electronics industry is so big and they rely so much on imports, when they are building alternatives to the US-controlled semiconductor supply chain (ASML, Applied Materials, TSMC etc.), it will matter at one point for ASML even if the Chinese tools and final products are never exported.
Seriously, try to design anything non-trivial without a TI part anywhere. Even in China, foreign brands are everywhere in electronics, and much of it is imported.
There's a lot of scope left for China to penetrate the "low end" semiconductor (and other electronic parts) market as well.
>> ASML is going to remain a monopoly and whatever Chinese alternative that there may be is going to stay in China.
Suppose China develops a cheaper way to produce the EUV light and sells the tools for half what ASML does. They might sell to others just to become the leader.
Then again, if they do an Intel 10nm+++++ and fail to maintain velocity even for a couple of years, their competition will close that gap very quickly.