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by graeme 735 days ago
They were speaking hypothetically. Even if denotes a scenario where the impact per infection is equal.

In such a scenario Covid has worse impact due to the higher transmissibility. People seem to get it every 6-12 months. Flu infection is much less frequent.
2 comments
nostrebored 735 days ago
Your assumption is that the impact per infection is equal or worse.

I think that there's no real basis to assume that, especially when young. I would expect the distribution of flu complications (externally validated, not based on self-reports) is actually worse.

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taeric 735 days ago
I think the flu data is somewhat difficult here. Most people do not refer to having had it if they didn't get sick. Yet, studies are showing from a third to a half of people with the flu will be asymptomatic. Which, is kind of terrifying to me.
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graeme 735 days ago
True, but Covid also has plenty of asymptomatic or low symptomatic cases. I’ve known a few who tested positive while reporting no symptoms.

A Chinese field study estimated people got the flu once every five years. It is simply much less contagious. Flu collapsed globally when countries put in place Covid precautions.

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-31698038.amp

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taeric 735 days ago
Latest study I saw on flu was about 10% of people get it each season. And there was another study showing that families with toddlers are basically always exposed.

COVID does follow the same general rates of corona viruses, from what I remember. Which is to say it is higher than flu. So, I am not trying to downplay that.

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graeme 735 days ago
If 10% get it then you'd get it roughly once in every ten years.
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taeric 735 days ago
I'm very hesitant to extrapolate from those numbers. Often times they will use that as "per exposure" number. Such that it will often be far higher than you'd take from a naive reading. Sadly, I don't remember where I saw that number, so can't check up on it.

That said, feels very in the weeds here. My stance is largely to have as much patience with folks as can be. I don't personally go through as much effort as many do, but I see no reason for that to be something to get upset over, either.

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