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"got a prediction of AGI in 1 to 2 centuries" Predictions at this time scale are bullshit, at least in modern technological civilization. It would have been different in the Stone Age, but we don't live in the Stone Age, when things barely changed for millennia. For some perspective: 100 years ago, radio was barely a thing, airplanes were made of wood and canvas, Africa was thinly populated, antibiotics didn't exist, semiconductors weren't useful yet and the British Empire reached its largest extent ever. 200 years ago, railway wasn't a thing, electric telegraphy wasn't a thing, germ theory wasn't a thing, photography wasn't a thing, most parts of Europe were still feudal, Oregon and California were still Amerindian country, the US was an unimportant country on the fringe of the developed world, and official science of the day denied the very existence of meteors as space rocks, because only dumb hicks would believe in rocks falling from the sky, ya know? Don't tell me that people back then could make accurate predictions about the technological level of 2024. Neither can your smartest person, even though I don't doubt their smarts. Making long-term predictions is about as reliable as making long-term weather forecasts. (Not climate. Weather.) |
200 years ago you could predict that your life would be about exactly the same as your parents' life so you had a lot of shared experience which facilitated culture transfer from one generation to the next. These days our lives are very different from our parents' life so it is difficult to share a perspective on common experiences and to transfer that wisdom. This implies there is a self-limiting factor to accelerationism.
My own prediction for AGI is a millennia at least. ;-)