[kelnos]

I think a better analogy would be a poker room than a craps table. You don't get to influence the outcome at a craps table, but your performance at a startup will influence its probability of success. Also your choice of which craps table to play at doesn't change your odds, but you can certainly change your odds of success at a startup by choosing which one to join. Obviously there are no sure things, but after a while you can at least weed out most of the dumb startup ideas and/or the incompetent founders.