What's the strategy for getting the astronauts back? Do they jettison the Starliner and dock a different recovery vehicle? Are those on stand-by ready to go?
Good News: There's no real risk to them remaining on ISS at this point, short of some major incident on the ISS itself which required immediate evacuation.
Less good:
Even if Boeing had a spare Starliner (they don't), they don't have a spare rocket to put it on.
Even if Boeing had a spare fully stacked Starliner + Rocket, I'm not sure anyone (even Boeing) would trust their process to be agile enough to launch a recovery mission any time soon.
So that leaves Russia's Soyuz and SpaceX's Crew Dragon.
Using Soyuz would be a major political headache, aside from anything else. It'd require scrapping the next planned Soyuz mission - it may take several months to get that ready. I believe they have to (and would) have to send it up manned.
Using Crew Dragon may be possible, No idea on where SpaceX is as with having refurbished/ready to go capsules on hand, but they have enough launch cadence that it may be possible.
Space Suits then become a problem - they're specific to each launch vehicle, and customised for each wearer. So lead times there become an issue.
>It'd require scrapping the next planned Soyuz mission - it may take several months to get that ready. I believe they have to (and would) have to send it up manned.
Soyuz can be launched to the ISS with no crew. The Russians sent up a Soyuz with no crew a few years ago when the Soyuz they used to get up there stared leaking.
Polaris Dawn is supposed to go up next month, and while that mission isn’t going to the station, that capsule has been there multiple times, so I doubt it would need much modification.
For those unaware (like me), Polaris Dawn is a planned private human spaceflight mission, operated by SpaceX and using the Crew Dragon capsule, scheduled to launch on July 12 (according to Wikipedia).
Worst case, they could always use the other capsule that's docked to the ISS right now to get back.
Though that would leave the current crew stranded up there until a replacement spacecraft can be sent. That takes several months.
This has happened before. The Soyuz docked to the ISS in Dec 2022 was damaged by a micrometeorite strike and was deemed unsafe, leaving that crew essentially stuck up there until a new Soyuz was sent back up in Feb 2023. (The damaged Soyuz was later remotely flown back empty.)
The space suits are custom fit, but if two astronauts are about the same height, I'd imagine you could make it fit and have it be safe if maybe uncomfortable. Worst case, you could always just not wear a space suit for the trip home. You only need the suit in the case where the capsule depressurizes but still survives reentry. To my knowledge this has only ever happened once. If they really need to leave the space station and there are available seats, this seems like a no brainer. It would be like evacuating from a tsunami in a car that didn't have seatbelts.
Good News: There's no real risk to them remaining on ISS at this point, short of some major incident on the ISS itself which required immediate evacuation.
Less good:
Even if Boeing had a spare Starliner (they don't), they don't have a spare rocket to put it on.
Even if Boeing had a spare fully stacked Starliner + Rocket, I'm not sure anyone (even Boeing) would trust their process to be agile enough to launch a recovery mission any time soon.
So that leaves Russia's Soyuz and SpaceX's Crew Dragon.
Using Soyuz would be a major political headache, aside from anything else. It'd require scrapping the next planned Soyuz mission - it may take several months to get that ready. I believe they have to (and would) have to send it up manned.
Using Crew Dragon may be possible, No idea on where SpaceX is as with having refurbished/ready to go capsules on hand, but they have enough launch cadence that it may be possible.
Space Suits then become a problem - they're specific to each launch vehicle, and customised for each wearer. So lead times there become an issue.