[larrys]

I'm always fascinated by downvoting on HN. I'm guessing you expressed what you felt "my success and failure in life had nothing to do with luck" and people are saying by downvoting that you are wrong!!! Why? You didn't say "people's success or failure" you said "my success or failure". In this case the downvoters are being parental and telling you to grow up and have a better understanding of the way the world works.

Or maybe it was this which they saw as factually incorrect: "Luck may have put Michael Lewis at Goldman Sachs, but luck didn't determine his level of success." but didn't want to take the time to correct you so others not as informed could learn.

Anyway, you said this: "I certainly find myself occasionally jealous of people who seemingly lucked into great success."

People normally refer to jealousy in a negative way. Personally I think it's a powerful motivator.

[tedunangst]

I'd say he's being downvoted for responding to the title, but not the content of the speech. Maybe the first reference to Goldman was a typo, but then repeating and insisting on that mistake? (Why not go back and check?) Calling the speech an article. People will conclude nirvana at best skimmed it. If you haven't read and understood the material, don't comment on it.

[larrys]

"then repeating and insisting on that mistake"

As they say in medicine, would it change management? Lewis worked for an investment bank and that is what was in his head when he made even the repeat mistake. Nobody is relying on that info to make a decision. Even Lewis is willing to write a parody (which was skimmed by people who would believe he worked for Goldman). To me, yes, it is a mistake but not a reason to down vote. Look everyone draws the line at a different point and for different reasons. Had he written "when Gates started Apple with Ballmer" that of course would be different.

"Calling the speech an article. "

Same with this. Ok it was a speech and not an article. But does that really matter that much?

[nirvana]

I read the speech. I also read Liars Poker. I knew Lewis had worked at Soloman Brothers, but somehow in the years since I read the book "Goldman" replaced "Soloman" in my head. So this is a typo.

Of course that I named a different firm (equally hated) than the correct one doesn't change the content of my article.

It is a post hoc, ergo proctor hoc argument to evade the obvious reason. The actual reason has been presented as an argument by the majority of the respondents so, anti-intellectualism.

[RockyMcNuts]

s/b Salomon Brothers

You may now resume proving Lewis's point, that "People really don’t like to hear success explained away as luck."

[twoodfin]

So just how much more "lucky" is Warren Buffet than a thousand other capitalists? If you took away every penny he owns and made him 25 again, do you really doubt he would be able to earn it all back?

[intended]

Warren Buffet is a known anomaly.

His value investing and stock picking ability is pretty much unparalleled.

At the same time, he IS lucky to have done what he did, at the time he did.

Even if one single person like him existed before or at the same time as him, he would have had trouble finding deals to invest in.

EDIT: not to mention the things he did wouldn't have been possible at many other junctions in time. His skill set - value investing, would have been impossible if he wasn't born in the era he was.

[RockyMcNuts]

Warren Buffett admits he was lucky. I don't doubt he would do very well. I have doubt he would do as well, his performance would revert closer to the mean.

[intended]

I think you changed the framework of the discussion.

While within your framework you are of course, correct; at the same time, its framework is at odds with what everyone else in this thread are discussing. As a result you are being downvoted.

Not because of anti intellectualism.

[Dn_Ab]

I can give a very simple explanation of how luck is a part of the equation of success for anyone who has ever been born. The distribution of opportunity is clustered in certain locations. It is not even.

To be born in a country with equal opportunity, libraries, free education, water, electricity, non dictators. That is lucky.

Wealth arguably follows a log normal distribution. This means all the benefits combine multiplicatively, so that even seemingly small differences in the positive will combine to give a substantial advantage.

[MartinCron]

the downvoters are being parental and telling you to grow up and have a better understanding of the way the world works

Anyone who insists that luck has no role whatsoever in their short or long term success or failure either needs to grow up, or share their secret for how they chose the circumstances of their birth.

[vannevar]

Downvoting should be reserved for comments that violate site guidelines, but many people prefer to censor opinions they disagree with rather than address them. If you disagree with a post, write a response or upvote an existing response that already articulates your argument.