| > do you think their above-grade returns can persist into the future for decades In aggregate, yes, given equities have done just fine persisting over the last century and a half. (Also, the 7% figure appears to be nominal.) > you cannot really have identified, "the same" companies continue to return 2-3x market average over 50 years without some concern remains No, I don't believe we have precedent for this. > When the west coast disappears in a tsunami, it won't be as bountiful, right? Flooding isn't typically privately insured. As far as reinsurance is concerned, a tsunami taking out a bunch of California would be financially uneventful; on one hand, you're losing a premium stream, on the other hand, you've freed up reserves. (Not an economist nor an actuary, but have training in both and some licensing in the latter.) |