[EthanHeilman]

> it's clear that the Ukraine invasion was motivated, in part, by NATO expansion.

Unless you mean, the only way to have prevented the Russian invasion of Ukraine would have been to accept Ukraine into NATO, I strongly disagree with you here.

Russia invaded Ukraine not because Russia is fearful of NATO but because Russia wished to recreate the Soviet empire. It's just plain old imperialism.

[hindsightbias]

Years Ukraine not admitted to NATO: 1992-2022

But it was going to happen any minute now. I wonder if these sme people think Turkey is going to be admitted to the EU…

There’s a sucker born every minute.

[EthanHeilman]

Yep. The US told Ukraine it was never going to happen. Originally Ukraine had wanted neutrality but Russia kept making territorial claims on Ukraine land pushing Ukraine to seek protection from Russian imperialist ambitions.

If Ukraine eventually gets NATO membership it will be because of Russian's invasion.

[hughesjj]

Heck Crimea basically guaranteed ukraine couldn't be admitted because of the whole no territorial disputes clause, and they were (nor are they now) nowhere near ready to acquiese on that.

[dragonwriter]

> Heck Crimea basically guaranteed ukraine couldn't be admitted because of the whole no territorial disputes clause

There is no such clause in the North Atlantic Treaty, and many NATO members (including founding members) were admitted with territorial disputes, including with other NATO members, either admitted earlier or simultaneously admitted.

NATO members are required to pledge to resolve disputes of any kind in accordance with the principles of the UN, endeavouring to do so by means which are both peaceful and not disruptive of international peace and security, but without prejudice to any of their rights under the UN Charter including those of individual and collective self-defense, and to declare that at the time of their accession to the treaty none of their existing "engagements" violate those principles. (See, particularly, Articles 1, 7, and 8 of the North Atlantic Treaty.)

There is no reasonable reading of the Treaty which would prohibit a new member from being admitted while while some of its territory is under hostile occupation or while engaged in a defensive war on its won territory against an aggressor; it may make it more difficult to achieve the required unanimity, but there is no "territorial disputes clause" preventing it.