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by betaby 732 days ago
That if won't happen anytime soon neither for the Earth in general nor USA in particular. Media often loves to move goals from population growth to agin g population to fertility rate, etc. All those while connected do not negate the fact that population is growing, and growing fast. That 'once population growth reaches zero or negative' is very theoretical and UN is constantly underestimating population growth. So no, we will not see that in our lifetimes.
2 comments
rybosworld 732 days ago
The population growth rate has consistently declined for 50+ years. It's around 0.8% from a peak of 2.2% in the 60's.

There's no reason to think this trend will reverse.

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betaby 732 days ago
Why should we use peak as a benchmark? Even 0.8% is insanely high, at such rate population will double in ~150 years.
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throwawayFinX 732 days ago
The parent is not wrong:

The total number of children in the world has already peaked (2017?) and is now dropping.

The population growth should still continue for about a human lifespan from here (50-80 years depending on who you ask).

That last growth is just those children growing up and becoming adults. I.e. They are the “last big generation”.

We will see the population drop again, if we dont fuck up the planet before that happens.

I think you would have difficulty finding countries in the world where fertility rates (children born pr woman) are not dropping.

Bangladesh went from 5.5 kids pr woman in 1985 to 2.1 in 2017. This is a global trend.

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rybosworld 731 days ago
> Why should we use peak as a benchmark?

I'm not sure what you mean by the peak being a benchmark. There's a very clear trend of population growth declining every year since the 60's.

> Even 0.8% is insanely high, at such rate population will double in ~150 years

I think you are missing the part where the rate has been declining every year.

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betaby 731 days ago
I think you are missing 'in our lifetime', even though you are quoting 'will double in ~150 years'. Also 'declining every year' doesn't mean it won't start growing again.
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rybosworld 731 days ago
> I think you are missing 'in our lifetime'

I guess it depends when you are born. Peak population is predicted around 2075, and that's within a lot of people's lifetime.

> Also 'declining every year' doesn't mean it won't start growing again

That's a bit obvious and is equivalent to saying "anything could happen".

But unless you have a good reason for a reversal in trend, then there's no reason to think it will.

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mensetmanusman 732 days ago
China loses 300 million in the next century, we will start witnessing the impact before we die.
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