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by roenxi 742 days ago
> Argentina may have serious monetary problems, but does the USD?

It is a possibility. The US's debt payments are a similar order of magnitude to their military spending and there is not really a scenario where the principle will get paid back in real terms. And the US's net international investment position is eyewatering. It isn't obvious that the money was well spent in the negative interest rate years, although maybe there has been a lot of capital formation in the US that flew under my radar it is early days yet of positive interest rates.

We're also probing at a big war and there are real questions over what the US will do to USD holdings in the event that risk materialises. We all see what is happening to Russia's assets.

It isn't particularly obvious that the USD is a safer currency in the abstract than the Argentine Peso. Certainly as a foreigner it looks a bit risky. It might also become unreliable for internal use, the debt situation or a political blow up are both ways it could go bad. The situation is something of a spectacle.