[cjbgkagh]

There is a delay in the perceived value of the job as well as a delay in acquisition of a degree/pedigree so the calculus must take into account the expected job value at the end of the degree.

In my view, given that the tech job value is in decline, and will continue this decline for the foreseeable future, the net present value of the job is much lower that the perceived value. Prospective students should take this into account, especially the middling ones.

When I decided to go to university in 2001 it was after the dot-com crash and classes were very small. We were told that all programming jobs in the future will be done by Indians and there was not future for us in this feild. I took the bet that they were wrong and did quite well out of. But I was also a rather gifted student with a natural affinity to programming so I figured it was something I wanted to do even if it turned out that I was wrong.

My prediction now is that this downturn in tech prospects is not a temporary setback as seen in previous downturns and is more structural and permanent. The pie is not growing fast enough to turn efficiencies into consumer surplus and instead efficiencies are driving down wages at a time where government policies are exasperating income inequality in an effort to chase GDP. I don't know how someone starting today would escape the intentional demand destruction / crushing of the middle class. Maybe there is some margin left in the high pedigree -> good job strategy but I am not confident in it.

Since I think the expected payoff of high pedigree degrees are worth less than what other people think a more economically defensive strategy of not taking on large amounts of debt and self teaching as much as possible would be the way to go even if historically that has not been true.