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by noduerme
742 days ago
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So, consider this a starting point... https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/30/3/23-1098_article https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3922066/ Influenza A mutation rates:
https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/110197v1 My models are damn simple, though. It doesn't matter if you need 6 or 12 mutations. (Or it only really changes the kickoff by a few weeks at most). It doesn't matter if those incubate in 1 million or 6 million human/pigs/cattle. The times begin to converge in a very short range. What we do know is that it took about six months to develop a dozen mutations to go from birds to dairy cattle, and it took 4 months to detect that, in March. Any way you model it we have between 2 weeks and 2 months. Before humans start coughing it at each other and dying like masses of sea lions already did. |
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