[dragontamer]

The opposite.

Chinese EVs are dumping because China's economy is collapsing, forcing them to dump prices because there's not enough Chinese demand.

China is now exporting all of their excess inventory to Europe and beginning to make plans to export all this inventory to the USA. And USA is rejecting it.

China has overbuilt their EV market, and continues to over-invest and builld too many EVs. USA is already pissed off at this turn of events, and European politics are beginning to grow more protective as they are also seeing this ridiculous amount of inventories come over to their countries.

China bet too much on exports and has begun to piss off everyone else.

[toomuchtodo]

China's economy isn't collapsing, but it is contracting, and it is simply smart economic policy to stoke production vs unnecessary consumer demand domestically.

Global light vehicle market is almost 90 million units/pa. Ship every unit you can to every market that will accept those units (Tesla does this today, recalibrating exports as demand and incentives change; China built units are currently being offloaded in Canada due to demand sag). Of course you're going to have less sophisticated economies (who did not prioritize rapid investment in building EV manufacturing capacity up) upset you made prudent supply chain and manufacturing investments while they allowed their domestic concerns focus instead on profits (see: near term historical developed automaker share buyback volumes). If the US and Europe close their markets to Chinese EVs, Chinese EVs will consume any overseas TAM US and Europe automakers had a chance at (Mexico, Central and South America, parts of Asia and Africa, etc).

Global factory to the world being the factory to the world and the unsophisticated are all surprised pikachu. US economy is only ~18M units/pa, Europe ~10.5M units/pa, the rest of the world (~60M units/pa) is for the taking under strong trade protectionism regimes. This ignores the potential global TAM increase due to lower cost EVs inducing previously unaccounted for demand.

[dragontamer]

Canada / USA / Mexico moves mostly in lockstep thanks to NAFTA. I don't think Canada or Mexico are looking to accept these dumped Chinese vehicles.

> Central and South America, parts of Asia

Brazil is all into Ethanol and is the largest economy of South America IIRC. India is highly protectionist, so good luck selling things there.

Once we knock out the obvious contenders, its not very clear who will buy this massive pile of Chinese EVs. Africa? They barely have electric infrastructure. Who will build all the power-plants so that EVs become feasible there? Especially if we assume the richer parts of Africa (ex: Egypt and South Africa) moving with Britain like they tend to do.

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Tesla has already a growing inventory problem, in part due to Gigafactory Shanghai directly competing with Chinese vehicles like BYD. Tesla has been forced to collapse the prices of its entire lineup in China/Europe, while NA demand is also falling due to overproduction.

I dunno, its not very clear that China overproducing EVs is a good move. There's a lot of risks here.

[toomuchtodo]

> Who will build all the power-plants so that EVs become feasible there? Especially if we assume the richer parts of Africa (ex: Egypt and South Africa) moving with Britain like they tend to do.

https://electrek.co/2024/06/03/global-pledge-triple-renewabl...

https://www.iea.org/reports/cop28-tripling-renewable-capacit...

[itishappy]

> Who will build all the power-plants so that EVs become feasible there?

China, probably. It's kinda their thing:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Belt_and_Road_Initiative

[dragontamer]

I was under the impression that Belt and Road initiative was rails, trucks and ports / shipping / docking. Not so much power plants or EVs.

[itishappy]

They do energy sector stuff as well. They've invested in several big hydropower projects over the years and a number of fossil fuel plants. I believe in the past year or two there's been an effort to refocus the projects towards clean energy as well, calling it the "Green Silk Road."

Of course, it appears somewhat controversial how successful these projects have been.

[ZeroGravitas]

So China, the world's biggest exporter of goods since 2009, accidentally built too many EVs and was forced to sell them overseas?

[dragontamer]

Yes and no.

China obviously has policies that benefit exports. But I think they're going to far with this EV thing, and they might be realizing that they've gone too far with their policies... But too late. Their industry and internal politics are designed to reward this overproduction.

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The real issue is internal Chinese demand has dropped off a cliff since COVID-19 and Evergrande issues combined in a terrible storm the past few years. Chinas internal economy has never recovered so they only have Exports now to rely on.

But now they're hammering exports to the point of causing geopolitical issues.

China does not want to be so reliant on foreign markets either. They're a proud nation that wants to stand by itself. But they have nothing but exports holding them up right now.

[asadotzler]

They're not dumping EVs. They're charging significantly more outside of China than in. Ar you just making shit up here? Sounds to me like you don't have a clue about this market. Compare BYD in China and Australia for example.