[pompino]

That sounds nice, but I don't agree that it is the most-likely point. Anyway, I would argue the point of failure is lack of expert level guidance/mentorship and (sometimes) monetary resources to pursue higher education. Once you've received formal training, you also need someone to bounce ideas off-off, or a community for collaboration etc, etc.

[Aerroon]

I think you're right in a sense. Expert-level guidance is helpful, but I think its main value is filling up the gaps of motivation.

Take school as an example. You don't need a math teacher to learn math. Everything you learn in that class is in the textbook. The textbook will even teach you math in a more formal way than a teacher will (at least mine did). But very few people end up learning math from the textbook. It's not because the teacher has better expert knowledge than the book, but because the teacher keeps you engaged in the learning process. A book won't do that.

I think a sufficient amount of motivation can overcome a lack of expert guidance and lack of formal training. It might not get you to the exact same result as somebody that did receive all that, but for a lot of things I think it can get you close.

I do agree with you on monetary resources. That will kill motivation and limit your ability to get guidance.