[threeseed]

> People are vastly underestimating the rate of change here

GPT-3.5 was released in March 2022. We are now in June 2024. Over 2 years later.

And on average GPT-4 is about 40% more accurate.

For me, LLMs are very much like self-driving cars. On the journey towards perfect accuracy it gets progressively harder to make advancements.

And for it to replace the status quo it really does need to be perfect. And there is no evidence or research that this is possible.

[pojzon]

Its enough to decrease the amount of ppl you need in IT by a factor of 20-30%.

Ppl dont want to hear that, but you see less and less offers and not only for junior positions.

Hard truth is that like with any tool/automation - the higher performance improves, the less ppl are needed for this kind of work.

Just look at how some parts of manual labor were made redundant.

Why ppl think it wont be the same with mental work is beyond me.

[hyperman1]

Not yet, because the reliability isn't there. You still need to validate everything it does.

E.g. I had it autocompleting a set of 20 variable#s today Something like output.blah=tostring(input[blah]). The kind of work you give to a regex.

In the middle of the list, it decides to go output.blah=some long weitd piece of code, completely unexpected and syntactically invalid.

I am still in my AI evaluation phase, and sometimes I am impressed with what it does. But just as possible is an unexpected total failure. As long is it does that, I can't trust it.