[steven_noble]

Mostly politics, where I have learned to stop predicting anything that can't be directly seen -- especially the future. For example: 1. Trump wins. I firmly predicted the opposite. To be fair, most polls predicted the same. But the lesson is to be less certain about the future. 2. No chemical weapon found in Iraq. I firmly predicted the opposite. To be fair, when that event unfolded, it was not that long since the world had last seen Iraq actually use chemical weapons against Kurdish insurgents. But the lesson is to be less certain about anything that can't be directly seen.

[mablopoule]

My "favorite" example about this is the 2016 Pulse nightclub shooting, because it's so easy to jump to conclusions (especially when it seem to fit the ambiant discourse) and be completely wrong about the whole situation.

It's a gay nightclub in Orlando, Florida that was in 2016 the theater of a mass shooting (49 killed + 58 injured) during a "Latin night".

I still remember hearing about it on social media at the time, that it was another attack on LGBT, and especially an attack on minorities... turns out that the perpetrator didn't even knew it was a gay nightclub, he was an ISIS sympathizer whose ire was directed towards the US at large.

Of course, it doesn't diminish the tragedy of the event, or the fact that the LGBT community of Orlando was the most heavily hit, but it does illustrate that we should be mindful on when we are jumping to conclusions and assuming stuff without all the elements.