[monsecchris]

As far as I can see, betting markets moved very slightly in favour of Democrats winning on this verdict.

[slater]

Got a link for that? I'm not into betting/betting sites, all I get is old articles about Mr. Orange being the favorite still

[chr-s]

Check out the 24h chart on https://www.predictit.org/markets/detail/7456/Who-will-win-t...

The roughly 50-45 Trump-Biden favor briefly flipped to 48-50 but now looks to be reverting to the mean.

[richrichie]

51/35 now

https://www.realclearpolling.com/betting-odds/2024/president

[mcphage]

I’m sorry, do those odds claim that Obama has an almost 4% chance of becoming president?

[laverya]

Michelle Obama, yes.

[mcphage]

That's... fascinating.

[bjt1997]

I think it is Michelle Obama. That's what the "market" thinks. You are welcome to "arbitrage" it with some $!

Biden has a non zero probability of dying before the election (of natural causes). Plus DNC nomination is a super pac driven process. Math might just compute.

[senordevnyc]

Biden has a non zero probability of dying before the election (of natural causes).

So does Trump, who is arguably in worse health, even if slightly younger.

[mcphage]

> Biden has a non zero probability of dying before the election (of natural causes). Plus DNC nomination is a super pac driven process. Math might just compute.

So the odds of Biden dying, times the odds of Michelle Obama wanting to run, times the odds of the DNC not picking Kamala Harris—the current VP, times the odds of Michelle Obama actually winning, might work out to 4%?

...uh... I don't even know what to say about that.

[tim333]

https://www.oddschecker.com/politics/us-politics/us-presiden...

has Trump in the lead. Betfair have Trump 1:1, Biden 6:4 on Betfair.