[racional]

Except he doesn't have to start (or take action likely leading to) a full-scale attack in order to have a reasonable chance of drumming up a successful outcome.

For example he could set off a single low-yield high-altitude explosion to demonstrate that he "means business". And watch with delicious expectation as the Western world shits its pants.

It is unfortunately a comparatively low-risk, but sickeningly attractive proposition for him to consider -- especially if he finds himself backed into a corner with his own survival threatened (as will be the case if the war reaches a point where he is seen to be intractably failing).

[polotics]

if he does this he gives a lot of proliferation happy countries a free pass, Taiwan equips itself with nukes faster than you can say "Xi"