[Arnt]

Suppose it actually required twenty, or 200. In that case, would the relevant organisation publish the truth or rather lie and say "two"? I think lying makes a lot of sense. Telling the truth would be like saying "go ahead and kill the most accessible of these 20/200 people".

So I don't think the "2" is very likely to be true.

[throwaway1105q]

It could be 200 out of 20k, or something like that. Though yes, you're right, lying makes sense.