[llamaimperative]

“Predict the market” is an insufficiently defined phrase to argue over. Strictly speaking, of course they cannot “predict the market.” You’re describing a time machine or a crystal ball, and no, they don’t have either.

What they can do, as demonstrated consistently since approximately their founding, is eek out tiny, repeatable edges on the market and exploit them at rather large scale in a variety of market conditions for dramatically longer periods than anyone else.

That is in practice the most consistently-slightly-correct market prediction anyone has ever achieved.

[belter]

But not for their other customers?

"Renaissance Hit With $5 Billion in Redemptions Since Dec. 1" - https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-02-07/renaissan...

Maybe then it's real magic. Everybody knowns The Goetic Circle of Solomon cannot have more than 72 different demons. :-)

Are you familiar with "Fooled by Randomness" by Taleb? Here is one of the simple tricks discussed there. The details are of my own writing, the mechanics of it are as described.

How you can easily implement a Hedge Fund to beat the market and become a rich investment manager, that will show up every day on CNBC.

Step 1: Choose randomly 20 stocks from the hundreds in the NASDAQ and the SP500. Do this hundred times and create 100 funds.

Step 2: Let the funds run for a while and keep closing the worst performing

Step 3: At the end you will end with one or two that beat all market indexes

Step 4: After 3/5 years publish a full announcement page on the FT and Wall Street Journal, explaining how your Hedge Fund has consistently beat the market.

Step 5: Invite people to give you more money to manage, due to your amazing expertise. Make sure to charge a 5% management fee. Show up on CNBC once in a while for free, for increased exposure.

Step 6: Setup a Foundation to make sure you enjoy your billions tax free...

Another way to do, if you morals are let's say, more flexible, is setup several funds, trade your main ( profitable fund) again the other funds ;-)

I could do this all day...

[llamaimperative]

Okay, so is that what you’re claiming they’re doing?

If so, please share your evidence.

If not, then I’m not sure what is the point of this conversation.

There are plenty of hypothetical ways to beat the market and they make for the same quality of conversation as a drunk uncle’s “brilliant” day trading strategy that he just needs a few bucks to execute. Carry on all day if you wish, no one will be better off for it.

[belter]

> Okay, so is that what you’re claiming they’re doing?

I am not claiming that is what they are doing, but I offered two real strategies of what they could possibly be doing.

The most detail ever disclosed by Renaissance Technologies is probably this: https://www.hsgac.senate.gov/wp-content/uploads/imo/media/do...

Does not mean all details are there.

> If so, please share your evidence.

:) If I crack the Renaissance Technologies fund algorithm I don't think you will be the first one I will notify...:-)

However, I know where I would start to investigate. The employees of the fund, do some of biggest political donations in the USA. Astute investigative journalists could start to look there. Are they doing to avoid scrutiny of their activities? If you cracked the market why such a high level of donations? Philanthropy? Then open your fund...

Interestingly they also hedge their political donations: https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs//summary?id=D000022219&cycl...

And know how to push the limits:

"Abuse of Structured Financial Products: Misusing Basket Options to Avoid Taxes and Leverage Limits": https://www.urban.org/sites/default/files/publication/23081/...

> they make for the same quality of conversation as a drunk uncle’s “brilliant” day trading strategy

Sure...Let's stay with the alternative most in this thread are passively accepting: "They cracked the market"

[llamaimperative]

> they also hedge their political donations

...this is another misintepretation. You're looking at a list of donations by employees, who presumably don't fall under the same political persuasion. We know this for a fact given that Jim Simons and Robert Mercer are themselves on opposite ends of the spectrum (and each was very politically active).

Anyway yeah, I'm sure RenTech is just lacking scrutiny. Surely no astute investigative journalist has thought to look their way.

[belter]

> this is another misintepretation. You're looking at a list of donations by employees.

They have only 300 employees, and they are all partners apparently.

Financial investigative journalism is dead in the US. Journalists are paid badly, and work for the multinationals they should scrutinize.

In Europe the FT tried to pretend they were still a respectable financial publication, but shit their pants when the German financial regulator threaten them. They learned to be quiet since...

"Germany’s financial watchdog BaFin responded by launching a probe into the reporting and whether — as Wirecard alleged — it was an attempt at share price manipulation. " - https://www.ft.com/content/27872df6-b496-11ea-8ecb-0994e384d...

https://www.ft.com/wirecard

[blackhawkC17]

If you're accusing RenTech of something, be direct about it.

This is a typical conspiracy theorist style. Always pointing out "look there..." without ever saying what they're talking about, because there is actually nothing there.