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by benreesman
754 days ago
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I never traded consistently and successfully but I did do a startup with a seasoned quant trader with the ambition of using bigger models to generate novel alpha. We mopped the floor with the academics who publish but that is whiffle ball compared to a real prop outfit that lasts. Not having made it big myself I obviously don’t know the meta these days, but last I had any inside baseball, the non-stationarity and friction just kill you on trying to get fancy as opposed to just nailing it on the fundamentals. Extreme execution quality is a game, people make money in both traditional liquidity provision and agency execution by being fast as hell and managing risk well. Individual signals that are individually somewhat mundane but composed well via straightforward linear-ish regressions is a game: people get (ever decaying) alpha out of bright ideas (and rotate new signals in). And I’m sure that LLMs have started playing a role, there’s a legitimate capability increase in spite of the dubious production-worthiness. But as a blind wager, I bet prop trading is about what it was 5 years ago on better gear: elite execution (no pun intended) on known-good ways to generate alpha. |
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