[JumpCrisscross]

> if the US and Russia gets into a war with each other, we die

America and Russia aren't going to war. Leadership may be nuts, but contrary to popular reporting Putin's war in Ukraine was--at least at its outset--popular among Russia's elite. Those elite are not suicidal.

Putin is issuing China's final warnings [1]. Letting American weapons fired by the Ukrainian army hit Russian military targets inside Russia simply isn't a material escalation in proxy war terms. Even the U.S. Navy helping Ukraine with its air defence in respect of missiles and drones wouldn't be a true escalation; the history of proxy wars during the Cold War with the Russian state's predecessor showed that quite clearly.

The escalation would be American missiles fired by Americans hitting anything in Russia. That's a hard line we didn't cross in the Cold War. It's a line both sides are excruciatingly respecting today.

[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/China's_final_warning

[avmich]

> contrary to popular reporting Putin's war in Ukraine was--at least at its outset--popular among Russia's elite

You don't really know this.

[JumpCrisscross]

> You don't really know this

We sort of do, at least indirectly. No man rules alone. Moscow's elite have been enriched and empowered by the war. And it isn't their sons being sent to the frontline. To the extent there have been consequences, they've been in terms of lifestyle more than material wealth or influence.

[avmich]

We also seen and heard things like Naryshkin's astonishment and Joseph Prigozhin's phone discussion, and other things since then, which may suggest that elites don't really see a good short-term alternative to what they keep doing.

No man rules alone, but Joseph Stalin kept updating the closest circle for decades, and recent changes in federal government show that some thought previously unassailable can suddenly move with noticeable reductions of abilities.