[snapplebobapple]

You would be mostly correct if their leadership was logical and well informed. I am not convinced that has been the case for at least the last 3 years. When your outcome depends on one dude been told something he isn't going to like by the mountain of yes men left under him after purging disagreeable people for years, you end up wrong way more often than is ideal.

I mean, most likely how you called it above will come to pass but the chance of something deranged isn't close enough to zero anymore to ignore it. I would put the change of something deranged at more like 10-15 % but that's just my gut feeling.