[inglor_cz]

I had the same expectations about Russia in February 2022. Too old, too decrepit, not enough soldiers on the border to take Ukraine (200 000 is far from enough, country of that size needs 10x as much occupiers to be safely subdued into submission), not worth to burn all the relations with the West over.

Oh boy, was I wrong and the doomsayers were right. It is tricky to emulate mind of a 70-y.o. wannabe emperor who dismantled all the previous oligarchy in favor of one-man rule.

And that sound like China, too, with the difference being that the sea between China and Taiwan is a very formidable obstacle that just might raise the overall stakes too high.