[Phoenix5869]

> You can plot this exponential growth out over time and calculate when these models will have the complexity of the brain. Then you can assume some penalty for shitty architecture (that gets better over time), and you’ll have a ballpark estimate.

The same thing could’ve been said for self driving cars, or the space program, or a lot of things that seemed to be progressing quickly at the time.

[SpicyLemonZest]

And if you did say it, you would have been a lot more correct than if you'd said they won't amount to anything. Robotaxis with nobody in the driver's seat are available in three major US cities; most people use a network of navigational satellites every time they want to figure out how to get somewhere new.

[MVissers]

Not really. You can only make these predictions about things bottlenecked by things that improve exponentially such as compute.

Neither the space program nor self driving are compute restrained.

The latter will probably be “solved” as we get closer to AGI, since you need some sort of human like reasoning for edge cases that require reasoning.

Another tech like this is batteries: There is no miracle jump in production batteries. They just improve about 10% YoY, both in energy density and cost.

So you can extrapolate when electric cars will be cheaper than gas cars to buy.

Intersects around 2035 last I checked.