[fakedang]

You'd be surprised to learn then that most PE deals run on the back of literal pen and napkin models. In our process at my former firm, one of the largest megafunds out there, we would scout and model new opportunities using elaborate models, report them to the MDs who would then literally whip out a notepad or a napkin mid-presentation to decide whether the investment had potential. If it was in the grey zone, it was on us to demonstrate that it had merit, using more complicated modelling and analysis.

[davedx]

That doesn't surprise me at all, I've heard it's the same in private credit. I think a lot of the initial ground work that's done in due diligence and modelling is more to flush out any red flags than to inform the investment decision itself, and a model is only as good as its assumptions anyway...

[fakedang]

Spot on. We used a bunch of screening processes to mine opportunities, then use models to weed out the duds, or to buttress our investment thesis before presentation to the MDs.