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by lordofmoria 763 days ago
the most obvious explanation for this, that requires the least competence https://simple.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hanlon%27s_razor is that sama concluded that AGI cannot be achieved soon, so it's no longer a concern.
4 comments

Completely agree. I think the AGI fantasy that took the world by storm a year and a half ago has died out.

Of course, there are still true believers in these companies. They were true believers years and decades ago. But everyone who was suddenly introduced to the concept is no longer interested as the frictions of real world progress become apparent.

My prior in this case was full self driving, so I did not believe we were close to AGI even though LLMs can do impressive things. Hopefully software executives realize at this point that LLMs for software production will still require a competent and attentive “driver” to evaluate their output and apply human reasoning for years to come.
Can you give some examples of this disillusionment? I see more, not less people talking about these things nowadays. I'd like to believe that AGI is impossible but I don't see any evidence.
Safety from AGI, sure. But I've could argue there will still be safety concerns from the deepfakes and scams OpenAI's tech is sure to proliferate
But if you assemble a team of leading public figures and researchers caught up in AGI catastrophe scenarios, and then try to direct that team to just implement some guardrails against deepfakes/scams/taboos, you're quickly going to find them frustrated.

It's like taking a star NFL/NBA team and sending them to play a season of exhibition games in a foreign market instead of continuing to compete in the peak league of their sport.

This analogy doesn't track because Lebron would run circles around any foreign basketball team while OpenAI is not keeping up with deepfake detection.
> safety concerns from the deepfakes and scams

Those will happen whether or not you have a safety team. The best way to protect against these is to widely distribute deep fakes of famous people so everyone is aware that faking things is possible.

This would certainly raise awareness, but how exactly would it protect against deepfakes?
Don't protect against deep fakes. Make everyone know that deep fakes are possible and then they lose their power to influence.
Social media was already rife with fake news and half truths before ChatGPT.

And there are already open source LLMs that can be trained to scam a significant number of people. OpenAI can't do anything about it.

The only remedy is social media warning people.

I wonder if Adobe Photoshop has a safety team
We need safety from darkpatterns worse than twitter and facebook.combined.
Lol. It's kind of the opposite. That is what the coup attempt was about. Ilya saw GPT-4o (which when they started training it was probably going to be called GPT-5) in October or whenever and declared Mission Accomplished.

But that would have basically meant the company was wrapped up and the model was given away or sent to a working group to study in private or something.

Which would not be compatible with making money.

This is also why they did not demonstrate or even mention for one second the text-to-image capabilities of the latest model during the demo. Because it makes it too obvious that the model is truly general purpose and capable.

This is also why Altman made a big deal about it being free (to some degree) and explains the recent "feeling the AGI" photo on X/Twitter.

It also goes into the Morgan Chu lawsuit that is still going forward as far as I know. And you guys will see in the movie that comes out in a couple of years that my explanation was right.

Also, don't be surprised if they get Gal Gadot to play Murati.

There is no way GPT-4o is anywhere near good enough for Ilya to want to call mission accomplished for the AGI goal on it.
i didn't know the simple.wikipedia.org subdomain, pretty neat!