[ifwinterco]

I think current LLMs suffer from something similar to the Dunning-Kruger effect when it comes to reasoning - in order to judge correctly that you don't understand something, you first need to understand it at least a bit.

Not only do LLMs not know some things, they don't know that they don't know because of a lack of true reasoning ability, so they inevitably end up like Peter Zeihan, confidently spouting nonsense