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by leashless 762 days ago
Nobody said work for free.

Raise money for the fund's operations with a separate investment product, and take no 2% management fee. Instead take 40% of the upside: this is _efficient_ if you think the upside will be huge.

In fact if you were certain of the huge upside, people would borrow the operating costs for the VC rather than selling equity in the fund. Most VCs in practice live off the 2% quite nicely, and pray for a big hit, but _the big hit is a bonus not the point of the fund_

The point of the fund is the 2%. The once-in-a-blue moon hit is just that.

And let me point out. The YC "big hit rate" is about 1 per 200 investments. Ballpark; you'd need to ask them the current stat.

So a fund that makes 100 investments, on those numbers, has a 50/50 chance of a big hit. 50 investments, a 25% chance.

To reliably get a big hit you either need to massively alter the odds of success for your portfolio companies, or kiss an awful lot of frogs hoping to hit the occasional prince.

VC is _extremely hard_ because it bakes in tech risk and projections about future society into a financial product called startup equity. The big hits are staggering - the best investments ever made by human beings at any point in history I would guess - but reliable prediction of those big hits is impossible.

Nearly every unicorn has a stack of 70 rejection emails. The special factor is intangible and invisible.

If it even exists.

I think Paul Graham explained all of this quite clearly in Black Swan Farming. It's slightly "between the lines" but he knows exactly what business he is in: spread betting and tipping the table as far as possible in his favour!

A good VC approach.