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by piloto_ciego 760 days ago
I commented on this elsewhere, but being a negative Nancy is really a winning strategy.

If you’re negative and you get it wrong, nobody cares, get it and right you look like a damn genius. Conversely, if you’re positive and get it wrong, you look like an idiot and if you’re right you’re praised for a good call once. The rational “game theory” choice is to predict calamity.
1 comments
motoxpro 760 days ago
Yeah it’s funny that optimism in the long term is optimal and pessimism in the short term is optimal.
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piloto_ciego 760 days ago
Right, but I think people sometimes get the “what constitutes long term” factor a little bit wrong.

I am still talking to a lot of people who say, “what can any of this AI stuff even do?” It’s like, robots you could hold a conversation with effectively didn’t exist 3 years ago and you’re already upset that it’s not a money tree?

I think that peoples expectation horizon narrowing down may be the clearest evidence that we’re in the singularity.

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