[mrkramer]

>This thing continues to stress my skepticism for AI scaling laws and the broad AI semiconductor capex spending.

Imagine you are in 1970s and saying computers suck, they are expensive, there is not that many use cases....fast forward to 90s and you are using Windows 95 with GUI and chip astronomically more powerful that we had in 70s and you can use productivity apps , play video games and surf Internet.

Give AI time, it will fulfill its true protentional sooner or later.

[MP_1729]

That's the opposite of what I am saying.

What I am saying is that computers are SO GOOD that AI is getting VERY CHEAP and the amount of computing capex being done is excessive.

It's more like you are in 1999, people are spending $100B in fiber, while a lot of computer scientists are working in compression, multiplexing, etc.

[mrkramer]

>It's more like you are in 1999, people are spending $100B in fiber, while a lot of computer scientists are working in compression, multiplexing, etc.

But nobody knows what's around the corner and what future brings....for example back in day Excite didn't want to buy Google for $1m because they thought that's a lot of money. You need to spend money to make money and yea, you need to spend sometimes a lot of money on "crazy" projects because it can pay off big time.

[MP_1729]

Was there ever a time when betting that computer scientists would not make better algorithms was a good idea?

[jameshart]

Which of those investments are you saying would have been a poor choice in 1999?

[MP_1729]

All of them, without exception. Just recently, Sprint sold their fiber business for $1 lmfao. Or WorldCom. Or NetRail, Allied Riser, PSINet, FNSI, Firstmark, Carrier 1, UFO Group, Global Access, Aleron Broadband, Verio...

All fiber went bust because despite internet's huge increase in traffic, the amount of packets per fiber increased a handful of magnitudes.

[jameshart]

But you’re saying investing in multiplexing and compression was also dumb?

[MP_1729]

Nope, I'm not

[jameshart]

Then your overarching thesis is not very clear. Is it simply ‘don’t invest in hardware capital, software always makes it worthless’?