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by chefandy 764 days ago
> If you think that scientific rigour will help you avoid the need for good judgement, you're in for a great deal of distress.

Broadly, assuming more data and tighter calculations == more certainty is a folly endemic to engineering-focused organizations and industries. In reality, you're increasing precision without increasing accuracy: a dangerously misleading state. It's understandable: organizations obviously need to play to their strengths, but there's real danger in succumbing to the "when you're a hammer, everything looks like a nail" mindset. Firstly, It's much easier for non-engineers to parse the difficulty of engineering problems than the other way around. Outsiders easily see that they don't have the requisite chops to do engineering work. Secondly, cutting through ambiguity and unpredictability to reveal factors you can control is critical to engineering, while non-engineering jobs like management, design, and community outreach are hard because you must confront those things. Engineering types often reason about non-engineering problems either like they have the same level of predictability, or simply disregard the ambiguous and unpredictable factors because they don't fit into an equation.

It's easy to see why that micromanaging non-technical manager screwed up by insisted on using some technology or approach they read a snappy article about; an engineer's authority is cut-and-dried in that situation. It's harder to see why purely formulaic approaches often fail dealing with people, nature, markets, etc. Most things in the world are far more complex, temperamental, and less predictable than cache invalidation.

4 comments

> After a candidate's defeat in an election, you will be supplied with the "cause" of the voters' disgruntlement. Any conceivable cause can do. The media, however, go to great lengths to make the process "thorough" with their armies of fact-checkers. It is as if they wanted to be wrong with infinite precision (instead of accepting being approximately right, like a fable writer).

-- N.N. Taleb

"Firstly, It's much easier for non-engineers to parse the difficulty of engineering problems than the other way around. Outsiders easily see that they don't have the requisite chops to do engineering work"

Love it.

I often feel today's business landscape is made up of generation of MBAs raised on web start-ups.

The thinking so different than the candy store margin mentality of 3 generations ago.

The McNamara fallacy infects business types at least as much as engineering types in my experience.
It's probably worse in business types because they haven't gotten the exposure to science enough to realize that a lot of things remain tangible despite being un-quantifiable.