[rayiner]

Those numbers show that while the half of young people who are likely voters favor democrats, the other half of young people who don’t plan to vote must be split evenly between Biden and Trump. (For the overall average to be 45% Biden, the half that doesn’t plan to vote must be under 40% Biden to 37% Trump, with a large share probably supporting RFK Jr.)

That seems to support OP’s point. If you got that other half of young people to vote, they’d have very little effect on the election because they’re evenly split. Neither party has any reason to try and turn out those young voters.