Hacker News new | ask | show | jobs
by scentoni 763 days ago
"The Threat of a Solar Superstorm Is Growing—And We’re Not Ready" https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-threat-of-a-s...

Discussed in https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=40196820

2 comments

Humanity is good in sweeping problems under the rug and not preparing to various threats.
What problems?
That’s the spirit!
Also good at response. Ozone situation was fixed and now we actually track the asteroids.
We neither have a plan to fix the existing ozone hole and nor do we have a way for preventing an asteroid collision (assuming we are lucky enough that the theoretical asteroid that hits us is one of the subset of asteroids we can actually track)

So no, neither of those problems are even remotely fixed. We’ve just done the bare minimum to check the “we’ve reacted to a crisis” box.

We do have a way of redirecting an asteroid.

The problem is that we won't learn about it early enough for our current level of technology to do anything about it.

We'd need 2 fully-operational Starship launches or 4 SLS launches or 10 Delta IV Heavy launches with 25 years notice to redirect an asteroid like Bennu.

Now obviously 2 is better than 4 is better than 10. But the 25 years notice is a big problem. The momentum change you need to deliver the later it gets is so much larger.

> The problem is that we won't learn about it early enough for our current level of technology to do anything about it.

And this is exactly my point. We aren’t investing into inventing the technology to do this. Instead we just say “if we can detect a small asteroid early enough then we might be able to divert it” and then count that problem as solved. Even though Bennu is small, we still can’t see the vast majority of objects in the solar system and the advance notice we are talking about is impracticality long.

If this was a software engineering Jira ticket, it wouldn’t pass PR. And software developers aren’t even the most diligent of professionals compared engineers, doctors and scientists. But there’s no incentive for governments to sink money into a theoretical risk that impacts their “enemies” equally. And man do I hate how nations refer to other nations as “enemies” — but that’s a whole other argument.

And quite frankly, Bennu isn't even all that large. At worst, it would cause a regional catastrophe.

Imagine humanity being forced to react to an impending impact, say within a few years, from a newly detected 1km+ asteroid, never mind something like the colossal Chicxulub impactor.

> Ozone situation was fixed...

Ozone is still hole'ing[1]. The hole is no longer growing, sure, but that's a far fetch from "fixed".

[1] - https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20220321-what-happened-to...

Kind of tired of hearing this. Citing one initiative from 50 years ago is the definition of cherry picking, I'm sorry. The trend is that humans are incapable of long term global initiatives. I'm sure some game theory guy could prove it.
Strong disagree. When there is sufficient political will complex policies can and will be enacted. What is missing in climate action is not some psychological deficiency of our species, it’s lack of strong enough political consensus.

”We can’t do this” is both inaccurate and harmfull. I believe ”We are not currently fixing this” and ”there is a need for stronger political alignment” are the more accurate descriptions of the current malaise.

> it’s lack of strong enough political consensus

But this _is_ the psychological deficiency of our species.

No, the fact people can have different opinions is a richness. The point of political activity is to align these opinions.
> The trend is that humans are incapable of long term global initiatives

Doesn't this sort of assertion leave no room for the possibility of learning to do so?

No, trends can be broken.
Though the constant doomerism one encounters when they speculate about breaking such trends can discourage anyone from thinking it’s worth pursuing.
Then why is there a global supply chain and global agriculture systems and internet
Gall's Law speaks to this:

> A complex system that works is invariably found to have evolved from a simple system that worked. A complex system designed from scratch never works and cannot be patched up to make it work. You have to start over with a working simple system.

Gall uses the web as an example.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Gall_(author)#Gall's_law

Sounds like Gall's own invented horseshit with not much proof to it. Albeit believable.
We also solved Peak Oil, Acid Rain and saved the whales.
Though we have yet to shoot the seals

Edit: context

https://youtu.be/s95mEchLZEA

In what way did we solve peak oil - by continuing to burn more every year? Climate scientists are going out of their minds.

Is PFAS rain that much better than acid rain? Rainwater is no longer safe to drink anywhere on Earth.

As for the whales, that's nice they got a reprive... But we're still extinctifying species at 100-1,000x the background rate.

And the people responsible for all of this are not strung up, nor even imprisoned. They're fucking around on mega-yachts and private planes (environmental atrocities in themselves).

Peak Oil was about the world running out of oil.
Ozone is not fixed because I will still get extremely burnt in the sun here in Australia. Asteroids is not fixed because what happens when one super massive one is coming straight for us?
You do understand that even with a fully normal ozone layer, exposure to the sun can indeed cause burns during certain times of the year and especially in hot, tropical places? Are you expecting magic as a definition of fixed, or something that actually applies to reality?

Much of the climate change discourse on this site strays into the absurdly hysterical, but some of it veers even further into deep childish fantasy.

The current ozone situation is very bad and worsening.
resources are limited. You cannot prepare for all the threats in the world.
Nobody says about all threats, but there are many, just like CMEs, that are literally thrown to our face.
Also excels at destroying the cassandras if you will.
Are we not prepared though? Given other posts in this thread it seems to me that the effects are all calculated, expected and accounted for.

I mean if it's strong enough to fry off-grid electronics then it's a different matter entirely, but consumer electronics has some protections against that, right?

> I mean if it's strong enough to fry off-grid electronics then it's a different matter entirely

Last big storm in 2003 did damage grid level transformers. They also don’t just have those lying around and they’re quite expensive so it’s particularly devastating.

https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/images/u33/fin...

> but consumer electronics has some protections against that, right?

Much more complicated to answer, but no consumer electronics aren’t safe. Also not much use if the communication systems and electrical grid are down

In the past consumer electronics came in metal boxes that were earthed, I sure those will be fine. But these days everything's made out of plastic and not grounded.
I'd like to see an actual investigation of the effects on (computing) hardware like processors and memory. Can these be damaged/interfered with irreversibly? Measurements and actionable information.