[HorizonXP]

I'm going to have to disagree with you on many of your points.

>Here's my prediction, Blackberry 10 devices will turn out to be beautiful, well-made and generally pretty darn good annnnnnnnd it won't make a lick of a difference. I don't see RIM breaking the momentum of Apple and Google.

I will agree with you and say that RIM's problem has never been engineering prowess. I would say that RIM makes better hardware than Google's OEMs or Apple. Just put a Bold 9900 beside a Galaxy Nexus or an iPhone. It really holds its own, and I'd say it's better. RIM's problem has always been a) software (which they're fixing b) marketing.

OH GOD HAS THE MARKETING BEEN BAD! Atrocious. I don't have answers on this front, but Apple has everyone beat in this regard. They are the trend setters, not the trend followers. Google can't even compete with them in this regard.

But Apple's momentum HAS been broken. Fact is, there are more Android handsets being sold than iPhones. Is it because Android is a better product? People feel the iPhone 4S is old? I have no clue, I'm not an expert at all. I'm just saying, it is possible to beat them. Not easy, but no impossible. And the fact is, consumers are fickle creatures. They'll go wherever the next best thing is. It may be RIM that day when they sign a new contract. And RIM can easily lose that the next time around.

But if RIM can nail the marketing, they stand a chance.

>How so? In hindsight, it did nothing for them. Playbook, though a pretty good tablet, was a financial failure, and it's taking them until Q4 2012 to re-purpose QNX to phones - in the meantime they are hemorrhaging money, users who are switching to iOS and Android, and developers who don't want to support the current, and dead BB7 platform. It looks like they should have instead jumped on Android bandwagon and gave Samsung a run for its money.

You need to understand that QNX was purpose built to run on embedded platforms. CNC machines, medical devices, automobiles, you name it, it likely runs QNX today. Re-purposing it into a mobile platform for the 2010s and 2020s is not an easy move, but it's a sound one. Moreover, RIM is building it with different goals in mind. To this date, BlackBerry is still the only platform lauded by the US government for its secure mobile needs. RIM would like to maintain that.

And I'm not going to be as eloquent here: Jumping on the Android bandwagon is the stupidest fucking choice any company can make right now, and I'm not even going to detail why. Google it yourself.

[macspoofing]

>Just put a Bold 9900 beside a Galaxy Nexus or an iPhone. It really holds its own, and I'd say it's better

It doesn't hold up. I suppose if you like a keyboard with a small screen it may be superior, but the 9900 runs a deprecated, dated OS with no app support.

>RIM's problem has always been a) software (which they're fixing b) marketing.

Their problem is lack of vision.

Regardless, they may or not have bad marketing, but every phone they released in the last 2-3 years has been subpar - no amount of marketing would have fixed that.

>But Apple's momentum HAS been broken.

I said it was a two horse race. Apple is the biggest individual manufacturer and Android has a bigger market-share. At the same time, MS is trying to wedge themselves. Actually, MS is a good example of how incredibly tough it is to break into the market. Windows phones are actually pretty darn good devices, with good hardware and really nice software, backed by millions of marketing dollars, and they are still struggling. What does that say about Rim and BB10?

>You need to understand that QNX was purpose built to run on embedded platforms...re-purposing it into a mobile platform for the 2010s and 2020s is not an easy move

Oh I get it, and that's my point. It was hard. It was hard enough that it's taking them until Q4 2012 to release QNX phones. Which means they don't have a current-gen phone to compete with the latest offerings of Apple, Samsung, and Microsoft. Which means their current, dated OS is a dead platform that doesn't stand up to competition - predictably they are losing users and developers in droves.

Given all that, don't you think that maybe buying QNX wasn't a "masterful stroke"? Do you think consumers care about QNX the embedded OS or the fact that RIM is working really really hard to get QNX on mobile phones?

>BlackBerry is still the only platform lauded by the US government for its secure mobile needs. RIM would like to maintain that.

Who cares. They can't live only off of government contracts, they need the consumer market.

>jumping on the Android bandwagon is the stupidest fucking choice any company can make right now, and I'm not even going to detail why

Samsung is making money. Amazon is making money. Using Android doesn't guarantee success but it would have given RIM a battle-tested modern OS to release their next generation of phones and tablets last year or two years ago. Don't get me wrong, I don't fault them for trying to build their own OS, because it wasn't clear 2 years ago that this was a bad decision, but with the benefit of hindsight QNX has been a total and utter disaster for the company. The one device it launched with has been a financial failure.

[HorizonXP]

>It doesn't hold up. I suppose if you like a keyboard with a small screen it may be superior, but the 9900 runs a deprecated, dated OS with no app support.

I was referring to hardware build quality. Nowhere did I say that its software is comparable, and I actually made those points about legacy BBOS myself. Apologies if I didn't make that clear.

>Their problem is lack of vision. Regardless, they may or not have bad marketing, but every phone they released in the last 2-3 years has been subpar - no amount of marketing would have fixed that.

+1 on I said it was a two horse race. Apple is the biggest individual manufacturer and Android has a bigger market-share. At the same time, MS is trying to wedge themselves. Actually, MS is a good example of how incredibly tough it is to break into the market. Windows phones are actually pretty darn good devices, with good hardware and really nice software, backed by millions of marketing dollars, and they are still struggling. What does that say about Rim and BB10?

+1 on this, but does that mean that they shouldn't try? Should MS just stop trying?

> Samsung is making money. Amazon is making money. Using Android doesn't guarantee success but it would have given RIM a battle-tested modern OS to release their next generation of phones and tablets last year or two years ago. Don't get me wrong, I don't fault them for trying to build their own OS, because it wasn't clear 2 years ago that this was a bad decision, but with the benefit of hindsight QNX has been a total and utter disaster for the company. The one device it launched with has been a financial failure.

I'll answer your previous points here.

I think we're flipping back and forth between legacy BBOS and QNX. There's so many acronyms, it is difficult to keep it straight.

BBOS is for all intents and purposes, in maintenance mode (i.e. dead). QNX/BB10 is the new hotness. RIM has spent considerable effort to get their developer community moved over to the new platform, and it is working. At the same time, they're trying to bring back the developers they haemorrhaged, and bring in new ones. This seems to be working as well, but again, we'll see when the device launches what kind of apps we see. Apparently, App World is the fastest growing app store, with a ~264% jump in apps available. That's from RIM, so understand that it likely has some "spin" attached to it. :-P

Android does not fit the goals of RIM. QNX/BB10 does. RIM would rather focus on giving prosumers and enterprise users the tools they need to get things done (i.e. BlackBerry people do, another marketing angle from RIM). That means better battery life, easy and complete multitasking, with software that has an intuitive workflow so the user can accomplish what they need to, when they need to. RIM has significant engineering prowess and know-how that is miles ahead of what Apple or Google can achieve. To simply throw that away to latch onto Android? For what? Short-term profits? Samsung and Amazon make money, sure. Samsung makes it because they're selling handsets hand over fist with something like 40% of the Android market. Amazon makes practically nothing from devices and has resorted to making profits from its App Store. Amazon's model could be sustainable, but Samsung's likely isn't. Moreover, how much room is there for another Samsung in the Android space? None. None of the other manufacturers have a marketshare greater than 10%. You're talking about HTC, LG, and Motorola, all big name manufacturers, being squashed by Samsung.

I would argue that's a tougher way to compete, than to differentiate yourself with an entirely new OS.

My final point: startups fail all the time. You either recognize those failures and pivot, or you die. RIM is trying to pivot. Is it too late? Maybe. But let them try.

[tsurantino]

I really like your insight but I'm kind of curious as to how spectacular this marketing would need to be.

I saw a preview of BlackBerry 10's new phone but it doesn't seem like a particularly new or revolutionary offering. It makes minor, necessary adjustments but it seems as though they are late by at least 2-3 years. I see friends with BlackBerry's right now and I think that they are archaic. Granted, I am in a younger, consumer market, but there's something there.

I'd like to argue that RIM's brand is now very similar to MySpace. They might fix their product, rebrand themselves or reinforce their current, enterprise brand to push into markets again, but they are crippled by their recent lack of success, bad press and steep decline. Thus, no matter how good they get as a product, by being so crippled by the intangible effects of the brand decline, I doubt whether BlackBerry can assume their position again. Like MySpace, they may keep fixing their product, but they will keep losing users because everyone else is already using something else that's marginally better/comparable.

I appreciate your input on this. Your insight has been fantastic.

[HorizonXP]

I agree with most everything you've said, but as I commented to another user, let's see what happens in 6 months before we write them off completely. Many of the same things were said about Apple too.

[damncabbage]

> OH GOD HAS THE MARKETING BEEN BAD! Atrocious.

Particularly in Australia, where it's just comically terrible (and the subject of a lot of ridicule):

http://www.theverge.com/2012/5/1/2990708/rim-wake-up-campaig...

[barkingllama]

RIM will remain the choice of companies and governments strictly due to BES; no other OS offers such direct central control over the users' devices. Companies (mine in particular) are struggling to cope with Apple and Android devices in the enterprise, and Windows Phone 7 only slighty better.

[rdl]

I wouldn't bet on this forever. There are increasingly good tools to manage at least iOS devices in enterprise environments, and the platform security features of iOS are nearly as good as Blackberry. In the BYOD world (which is growing), you can deal with less management of devices (enforcing some minimum standards), then layering stuff like Good on top of them to secure business applications.

In the BYOD world, very few people will be bringing Blackberries to the party.

[HorizonXP]

Yup, agreed, and RIM seems to be reinforcing that effort with BlackBerry 10. Moreover, they're branching out across platforms with their Mobile Fusion efforts. They know that going forward, BYOD is going to happen, and IT admins will want to manage the access those devices have. It's RIM's hedge against the failure of BB10. If BB10 fails, they can at least pivot into an mobile enterprise services company.