[rl3]

>Whether such a game of chicken is responsible or not is its own discussion.

I'd argue giving in to nuclear blackmail is irresponsible. Personally I'd like to see the US version, with the Russians having to pause and think about what the eventual, complete loss of all their conventional forces in Ukraine looks like should they advance too far.

Then again, that's probably what the US has already communicated to them in private regarding use of tactical nukes.

[somenameforme]

This isn't what nukes would entail, for either side. If the US nukes Russian forces in Ukraine - Russia is going to retaliate with large scale nuclear strikes on the US. It's for this reason that if the US did want to go nuclear, it would likely be with a massive first-strike effort directly on Russia, which Russia would respond with in kind. The US has wargamed with tactical nukes a bunch - it always results in rapid escalation to 'the end.' I'm sure Russia has concluded the same. Neither side is ever going to threaten to go a 'little' nuclear.

[rl3]

I’m sorry, to clarify: The US version of the aforementioned game of chicken. That is, the threat of conventional military action.

It was widely reported that the US privately communicated the consequences of tactical nuclear weapon use to Russia, while maintaining an element of strategic ambiguity. Most reports suggested these consequences involved a full-scale conventional military response within Ukraine’s borders, thereby disincentivizing use.

In terms of subsequent escalation: As you pointed out, Russia of course knows using nukes against the US is literal suicide.

[somenameforme]

This scenario does not make any sense. Should the pandora's box of nuclear use be opened, it's not getting closed. And in this context, large scale conventional forces aren't much more than sitting ducks that would just be met with further nuclear strikes. It's for this reason that there's few, to no, scenarios involving nuclear weapons that don't result in global nuclear war, and thus the end of the developed world, if not of humanity.

[rl3]

The West wouldn't be replying in kind with tactical nukes, because that leads to escalation as you said. It's about proportional cost imposition as a means of deterrence.[0]

It's also possible the opening salvo of such a response might see tactical nuclear deployments neutralized via conventional means.

[0] https://www.csis.org/analysis/deterring-nuclear-weapons-use-...

[somenameforme]

Absolutely, I completely understand the idea and motivation, but I'm arguing that it's impossible, and so unlikely to be our plan. The entire reason tactical nukes are desirable is because they obliterate conventional forces, and Russia has thousands of them. And keep in mind "tactical" often kind of masks what these are - these are not glorified bunker busters.

The bombs that destroyed Hiroshima and Nagasaki, to several times larger, would generally be considered "tactical" in modern times. These are massive weapons. Then there's ADM/'nuclear landmines' [1], and more. In the absolute worst case scenario, there's even the possibility of transitioning to strategic weapons. Approaching this sort of battlefield with conventional forces is not a viable idea.

So I have no idea what the US will do if Russia resorts to nuclear usage in Ukraine, but I think this scenario can logically be discarded as one of the possible options. It plays well in the media, but it simply does not make any strategic nor logical sense.

[1] - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Atomic_demolition_munition

[rl3]

>Approaching this sort of battlefield with conventional forces is not a viable idea.

It's almost certainly unstated US foreign policy on the matter, and not just a media bluff.

They might have thousands but they don't have thousands deployed. Moreover, use with any kind of frequency would just trigger a strategic US response, which would defeat the entire purpose—assuming there was purpose in the first place, which there isn't given conventional cost imposition.

Despite chill messaging, I suspect the US's strategic trigger finger is far itchier when things get real, and Russia knows this. Their triad has two arms which very possibly are entirely negated, and their C&C infra is garbage. There's a very real risk they'd just straight up die and accomplish nothing.