[chii]

> years later my gut feeling was right

and that's confirmation bias. what you haven't seen are the myriad of projects backed by reputable people that failed. So next time, your gut feeling is going to give you a misinformed truth.

It's why i always point out each time someone appeals to authority. It's annoying i know, but i think a lot of people just don't think about their own biases.

[Alifatisk]

That’s a fair point but I would not agree on your assumption of me not witnessing failed projects, I think you were too quick to call it confirmation bias.

I have had wrong on multiple occasions and ended up depending on an abandoned project. I understand the message you’re trying to convey, someone fully relying on authority is a complete wrong approach. BUT I do think looking at someone’s or somethings past can help you get a little insight, just a little.

[yarekt]

It’s both confirmation bias and appeal to authority, however, you can’t fully remove those biases anyway. the best you can do is just be aware of them and scrutinise projects despite their pedigree, or your previous experience. (It’s clear that you also understand this, no i’m in no way disagreeing with you)