[silverquiet]

I look back at Leo Tolstoy's "A Confession" and I think that it's a bit more complicated than that. He summed up my own thoughts quite well more than a century before I was even born.

> No matter how often I may be told, "You cannot understand the meaning of life so do not think about it, but live," I can no longer do it: I have already done it too long. I cannot now help seeing day and night going round and bringing me to death. That is all I see, for that alone is true. All else is false. The two drops of honey which diverted my eyes from the cruel truth longer than the rest: my love of family, and of writing -- art as I called it -- were no longer sweet to me. "Family"... said I to myself. But my family -- wife and children -- are also human. They are placed just as I am: they must either live in a lie or see the terrible truth. Why should they live? Why should I love them, guard them, bring them up, or watch them? That they may come to the despair that I feel, or else be stupid? Loving them, I cannot hide the truth from them: each step in knowledge leads them to the truth. And the truth is death.”

[randomdata]

> Why should I love them, guard them, bring them up, or watch them?

Once upon a time there was no choice if you wanted to survive yourself. The world was too much for the feeble man without their help. Indeed, the rich now have the luxury of relying on "corporations" to stand in for where children were once necessary. But then you're ultimately back to square one: Why should you love, guard, bring up, and watch the corporations?

There is no free lunch. You are going to put in the effort either way, but at least children might also provide some happiness along the way. The "corporations" seem to just draw ire. We didn't recognize that for a long time, but I do see a shift starting to take place.

[silverquiet]

I think we are just all different - I can't imagine children bringing me any happiness; I felt the way Tolstoy did already when I was a young child. Interestingly, my grandmother once told me she only had children because of social expectations, and I can say that her children were absolutely aware of that. For me, the philosophical reasons were enough; the monetary savings are in a sense a bonus, but for others economics may be the main force preventing them from having children which is indeed sad in its own way I suppose.

[randomdata]

> but for others economics may be the main force preventing them from having children

Economics never prevents having children. As before, only the rich even get the luxury of choosing to not have children. But the rich could have children too if they so choose. Their fear of children making them look poor under the whims of today's fashion is an entirely self-imposed limitation.

Good for them if that's what they want to do. No judgment on anyone's personal life choices. But I maintain that an increasing number of people are starting to question if that is what is right for them. I agree that what is right for an individual is not universal. Some people will truly not want children, but many more feel pressured to not have children due to the prevailing fashion trends. I see change afoot among the latter group. Having children is slowly starting to become "cool" again.

[silverquiet]

Fundamentally I just disagree with you I think; I'm not seeing any signs that trends in fertility are turning around, and I think if anything it was social pressure that was holding the numbers up to begin with. I'm certainly willing to admit that I could be wrong on that though; the millennials, a large echo generation from the boomers (myself among them) are hitting the age where it becomes a sort of "now or never" proposition and anecdotally, I do see some people considering it. But I also think that religion is one of the big drivers of social pressure for fertility, especially in the US, and you can see it continue to collapse which I think is a sign of the way things are going.

[randomdata]

> I'm not seeing any signs that trends in fertility are turning around

I'm not sure how you could. The sentiment is only just starting to change as far as I can tell. It is too late for the current crop of young-ish adults. But I don't see the next generation, of what generation there is, coming up in the same environment where having children is demonized and seen as something reserved for the poor. For them, I fully expect having children will be the display of wealth; the "cool" thing to do.

We see over and over and over again that the rich use their resources to set themselves apart from the poor in some way and then the poor try everything they can to emulate them. It is a tale as old as time. In this instance we saw the rich start to afford the luxury to choose to have children, and poorer people have been on the quest to copy them ever since. But now we're nearing a critical mass where the world has become rich enough that even the poorest people are now able to start thinking about foregoing having children. That signals that the current fashion trend is on the outs.

I'm starting to see a shift towards "Look at how rich I am. I can afford to have children and you can't!" You even alluded to that same shift in a previous comment, so it seems you're seeing it too. And we should expect something of the sort as it is the natural progression of fashion.