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by tw04 770 days ago
I don’t think that’s really a fair assessment. Yes Space-X has had the most launches and gets the most press, but the US has a very healthy launch industry.

https://arstechnica.com/science/2022/12/top-us-launch-compan...

2 comments

The thing is, it's not even remotely close.

SpaceX had 98 launches in 2023.

ULA, the closest competitor, had 3.

For all of these others, considering that this article is from 2022, how many of them even still exist?

Don't get me wrong, I hope SpaceX gets some stiff competition because I believe that competition breeds innovation. At the moment, however, I have no idea where that is going to come from or when it might reasonably come.

So you didn't click the link? Because ULA wasn't second, rocket labs had 9 launches last year and 24 scheduled this year.

As I said, the launch industry in the US is robust.

When/if SpaceX gets Starship operational, small outfits like Rocket Lab won't be able to compete. ULA will probably survive in some form though either due to being a well established in Washington (read: old trusted corruption), or through a merger with Blue Origin (read: bailed out by Bezos.)
I did?

No. 1: SpaceX

No. 2: United Launch Alliance

From TFA

Even if you're right, having 1 company with 10x of the #2 is not what I would describe as healthy.

> I hope SpaceX gets some stiff competition because I believe that competition breeds innovation

They are the competition and the innovation. I don't see them slacking off until they get to Mars at least.

Maybe he meant "copetitors at the same scale"- At oleast thats how I read it.
> the US has a very healthy launch industry.

What would a healthy launch industry look like? I don't think that 2022 article necessarily describes one. There is the long bet that won (SpaceX, reuse), the dino (ULA), a NZ transplant still mostly launching outside the US (RocketLab), some hopeful looking startups and always over the horizon Blue Origin.

This is a much better situation than the EU caught between the unpalatable antique (Soyuz) and the sailboat waiting for a cargo (Ariane 6).

However, it doesn't seem as healthy as the Chinese launch industry, which seems to have many providers launching and iterating with differentiated designs [0], bread-and-butter heavy launches from Long Marches (48 in 2023) [1] and continued work with the Tiangong space station [2]. It doesn't quite compute for me that commies don't have everything under proletarian central control, but they sure seem to be letting a hundred flowers bloom for now.

0. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chinese_space_program#List_of_...

1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_Long_March_launches_(2...

2. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tiangong_space_station

3. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hundred_Flowers_Campaign