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by seattleeng 773 days ago
Was gonna say, the email reads similarly to this famous thread about Java (with the old CTO of MS!): https://www.techemails.com/p/bill-gates-im-literally-losing-...

Really makes you think about the structure of mega corps and how powerful the “defender’s advantage” is. These giants knowingly sleep on disruption and wait to time their entry, and are generally rewarded. I dont know if its good or bad, it probably depends, but I think the capitalism game devs need some balance tweaks.
2 comments
FredPret 773 days ago
The defender's advantage only counts if the corporation is run by people smart enough to do something about it.

History is littered with out-innovated companies that are gone or clinging to relevance. Xerox, IBM, cable companies, telephone companies, every train company ever. All had a huge opportunity to disrupt their own business model and make even more money, almost none of them managed it.

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amscanne 773 days ago
It's funny that people only seem to remember the successes. Seemingly dominant giants fall all the time. Kodak, Nortel, Blockbuster, Blackberry, ...
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ThunderSizzle 773 days ago
A current model in danger: flight travel in the US.

It's becoming too expensive and too much of a hassle. On top of plane tickets, the airport rental car system is also absurdly expensive. Flying, while fast, is full of inconveniences that make it less worthwhile.

The first airline that rebrand itself as (1) from your door to (2) your real destination, and starts including effective ways to get to/from airport while having faster security lines will become dominant.

E.g. if Delta started connecting ATL to the local region by rail or fast buses

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vikramkr 773 days ago
Are they generally rewarded? Wondering is there are statistics on that because the narrative is usually that defenders end up unable to compete even with technologies they themselves invented and die out, with maybe apple and Microsoft recently breaking that trend.
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teaearlgraycold 773 days ago
I think in the long term Google could still win the AI wars. They're behind right now but they have the talent, money, and infrastructure to win. That said, I would absolutely not bet on it. I sold almost all of my GOOG.
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