[RcouF1uZ4gsC]

> My speculation is that internally they have much stronger models like Q*

People used to speculate the same about Google. Everyone hypes up their “secret, too powerful to release” models. Remember the dude who was convinced that there was a sentient AI in the machine? The light of actual public release tends to expose a lot of the hype.

[HeatrayEnjoyer]

That would be a reasonable assumption if OpenAI did not already have an established track record of repeatedly re-defining our fundamental expectations of what technology can do.

GPT-4 was already completed and secretly being tested on Bing users in India in mid-2022 (there were even Microsoft forum posts asking about the funny chatbot). Even after heavy quantization and the alignment tax GPT-4 is still the bar to beat. It's been two years and their funding has increased over 10x since then.

Short of a fundamental Hard Problem that they cannot overcome, their internal bleeding edge models can reasonably be assumed to possess significantly greater capabilities.