[wamatt]

>Pragmatically speaking, the new gGTLDs are likely to fail. So why not avoid that expensive bullet?

If the premise is true, then I agree with the conclusion.

But what will make the new set of gTLD's likely to fail?

And what does "fail" mean even?

If all you are going on is history, not sure we can conclude anything. Past performance is a poor indicator of future performance.

If it weren't the case, then I switch professions and become a stock broker, because it would be dead simple that even I could understand it ;).