[nu23]

In twenty years or so, this could easily be widely available, just like machine guns today. Even if there was an explicit ban on the endproduct itself, the basic technology could be understood well enough to allow underground manufacturing. If true, this would allow anonymous murders and a complete breakdown of law and order. The more advanced miniature variants with face recognition software, might elude detection and jamming technologies. Popular officials might find it too dangerous just to go outside. This would provoke even more intrusive surveillance systems.

There seems to be a broader trend where our offensive technologies are moving much faster than our protective systems. At a state level, this has been handled by deterrence. Fortunately, for nuclear weapons, the necessary materials were rare enough for regulation to be possible. But deterrence wont work when these technologies become popularly available. Hopefully, there is some non-brutal solution that we can find for this problem.

[treelovinhippie]

Now that is cool (in a horrible way). I'd never linked anonymous assassinations being carried out by drones built and controlled by garage hackers. I was more worried about government-controlled, weaponized drones monitoring citizens domestically. Though I'd say in less than 3 years the technology and economics will allow amateurs to build weaponized drones with face recognition for ~$1000.

Perhaps Anon will build their own drones to take-down government spy drones?

Or imagine a worldwide, anonymous, crowd-funded assassination network funded by bitcoins; targets decided via user votes and hits performed by weaponized drones that have no trace. They could even simply be suicide drones packed with explosives, controlled autonomously to fly at a target via face recognition.

...aaaaaand now I'm probably on a watchlist for typing that :)

[Retric]

I think you vastly over estimate the 'criminal underworld'. The DOD might be able to make miniature lethal drones using facial recognition software in 20 years. But, probably not. The idea that criminals will start mass producing such things cheaply is silly in your lifetime is just shy if ridiculous. Talking about building stuff is easy, but actually building stuff is hard.

PS: Problem #1 people don't look up that often. Problem #2 there are a lot of people walking around out there. And it just get's worse from there.

[nu23]

Well, I'd love to be wrong about this and hope that you are right. What worries me is that key parts of the technology, like the processor, sensors and software might be available cheaply due to their civilian uses. Manufacturing ability could well be scarce, but these weapons could pass through illicit distribution networks which today distribute machine guns and rocket launchers. I didn't fully understand your postscript, but regarding visibilty, I admit I dont know much here - for instance, how small of drone would be realistically possible for a non-state producer. But I dont see a clear knockdown argument, given that drones are used effectively today. Again, I hope you are right and that there are more technical obstacles out there.

[Drbble]

The US will just ban PCs like it banned chemistry sets.

[billybob]

Cory Doctorow's talk "The coming war on general computation" is a very interesting take on that: http://craphound.com/?p=3817

[rdtsc]

It is not about making it yourself from scratch and doing research and experiments, I think it is about buying the parts from China and assembling.

Say IED builders in Afghanistan, probably do not have PhDs in physics and chemistry but they can build effective shaped charges to pierce thick tank armor.

So at some point you could just order parts from some place. Assemble, then upload the picture of face it needs to recognize, approximative coordinates and press the "take-off" button.

[billybob]

I don't know, I think this sounds disturbingly doable in the near future. Both your problems are essentially "opportunities to strike are few." But the point of drones is that they're cheaper than humans. If you can afford to tail someone with 2 goons, maybe you can afford 20 drones all along their typical route. And the drones can recognize license plates and other non-facial things to help them hone in.

As for facial recognition software, there's probably already an Android app for that. Sure, there's a lot of work involved - it has to recognize the person, it has to drive around autonomously, it has to aim and fire. But most of those may be pluggable components of hardware and software soon, coming from perfectly innocent projects.

I think drones may well be a big problem in the near future.

[CamperBob2]

I think you vastly over estimate the 'criminal underworld'

This would be the same criminal underworld that currently builds 60-foot submarines?

[lclarkmichalek]

There's money in that. There's less (steady) money in assassinating the president. In fact, I imagine assassinating a president creates more problems than it prevents.

[billybob]

What about assassinating rival mob leaders who are cutting in on your drug business? Plenty of money in that.

[tomjen3]

You don't have to think criminal organizations since they have little to gain from attacking public officials -- that is just likely to get too much attention.

Think China sending a drone and using it to assassinate the the president. Make it fly away and destroy itself over water or some other place where it won't be recovered.

Later on it might be possible for people like McVeight to use a drone to kill the president rather than blow up a federal building.