| I disagree. a) A year after GPT-4 set the bar, it's still the best model, despite everyone else not having to do it first. Just copy, and just software. And that's not for lack of trying by every other viable prime player on the planet with unprecedented acceleration. Imagine any other piece of software, where the incumbent has a mere 2-3 year head start, in which they had to work out the entire product that everyone else, despite just having to copy and pressing the pedal through the floor is struggling just trying to catch up with. b) The current models including GPT-4 are so bad. The few billions can be made by just by continue playing this game of improvements for a few years and getting better each year. I think people are wildly confused about how big this market is going to be when that happens. They are not squeezing hosting or compute. They are squeezing intelligence. Intelligence is the entire economy. The notion that there would ever not be room for multiple things here, maybe through size or specialisation or cost (as with all other intelligence), and that a few billion dollar are a big deal, is so strange to me. c) The game will at some point, be mostly about infra and optimization. People come to the conclusion that's a problem for the incumbents, when our entire industry is mostly about infra and optimization. AWS is infra and optimization. I think even the average hn tinkerer understands that therein lies a proposition that's not exactly equivalent to "just rent a few servers and do it yourself". |
Debatable. Many people find Claude Opus superior, and I know I've found it consistently better for challenging coding questions. More importantly, the delta between GPT-4 and everything else is getting smaller and smaller. Llama 3 is basically interchangeable with GPT-4 for a huge number of tasks, despite its smaller size.