[sangnoir]

No, we are don't agree. I challenge the existence of a "correct" level of consumptions, and how it's derived is still ambiguous - all I have gathered so far is that it's below whatever it was when the shale oil companies went out of business. I can think of a couple of confounding factors, so I'm confused why consumer behavior should be assumed to be the primary driver here.

[lazide]

I don’t think it was? And the original quotes (looked like ‘scare quotes’ to me) showed the author wasn’t being very solid about it, or maybe even making fun of the idea.

IMO, the only way to ever even attempt to judge these things is in hindsight for the reasons you state.