[somenameforme]

Here is how to use the calculator, because you're still messing up the math a bit. We'll assume a 1% chance of death, and a population of 32.

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Probability = 0.01

Number of Trials = 32

Number of Successes = 2

Now you look at cumulative probability (P X>=2) = 4%

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You are correct that if bump the chances up to an annual 5.2% of death, then finally it starts becoming reasonably probable. So, for contrast, whistle blowers at Boeing seem to have approximately the same survival rate as somebody diagnosed with stage 3 breast cancer.