[creer]

"4%" is very much in dispute. It's easy to get that by reading click-bait article titles, but the question is obviously more nuanced. "N%" works anywhere you don't have total chaos. Do you have many years of plausibly relevant statistics? Can you envision these statistics (which by now include minor wars, major wars, self-inflicted major nonsense, high-inflation crises, other economic crises, demographic waves, and sitcom writer strikes) - can you envision these statistics to be reasonably relevant going forward? (You should ask yourself the questions, but "now is different" is a red flag, as economic thinking).