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by tunesmith
785 days ago
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I think any time you string together a series of worst case scenarios all being true at the same time, you're going to end up with something ridiculous. It's silly to ignore social security since at the bare minimum, if congress does nothing, people will still get roughly 75% of the benefit. One tool I like better than the online calculators is the spreadsheet at https://earlyretirementnow.com/safe-withdrawal-rate-series/ . It'll give you the actual 0% failure safe withdrawal rate, based off of your numbers. I'm sure in OP's case it will be higher than 3.00%. |
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For $4M and $140k annual spend:
> FIRECalc looked at the 124 possible 30 year periods in the available data, starting with a portfolio of $4,000,000 and spending your specified amounts each year thereafter.
> Here is how your portfolio would have fared in each of the 124 cycles. The lowest and highest portfolio balance at the end of your retirement was $348,731 to $24,529,049, with an average at the end of $9,233,594. (Note: this is looking at all the possible periods; values are in terms of the dollars as of the beginning of the retirement period for each cycle.)
> For our purposes, failure means the portfolio was depleted before the end of the 30 years. FIRECalc found that 0 cycles failed, for a success rate of 100.0%.